Yesterday morning, I stopped in at one of two farmers' market events held in Green Bay this winter. As planned, I scored some beets and a bit of grass-fed beef, but I also wanted to network with folks involved in organic agriculture.
At one visit, I discussed the need to balance large, traditional dairy operations with more naturally managed, grass-fed herds. The vendor raised some valid points such as the misconception that grass-fed cattle management takes considerably more acreage than traditional herd management, but he also threw out a startling statistic on another matter: a recent article in Forbes that says that by 2018, one-fifth of urban produce needs worldwide will be met locally. That seemed too good to be true, so I thought I'd track down the actual article.
As you can read for yourself, the 20 percent threshold for local produce production in cities is not attributed to any sort of study, but rather, is just one prediction in a multi-contributor collection of think pieces about what the future might hold. [The actual prediction states: "By 2018 at least one-fifth of urban food worldwide will be grown on rooftops and in former parking lots."] Hmm. Well, I just don't think that's a realistic scenario--more like a prediction to get people thinking. But there are some interesting and positive things going on with urban agriculture.
One is the work of healthy food entrepeneurs such as Will Allen in Milwaukee whose non-profit Growing Power focuses on urban produce farming. Allen's work has garnered national attention. Meanwhile, our First Lady is doing some great work to get school kids planting vegetable gardens. Another trend is "vertical farming," which is about using special structures to grow high volumes of produce skyscraper fashion in tight, urban areas. Then there are "micro-greens," which are varieties of smallish greens from vendors like Fresh Origins you can grow indoors on a window sill year round.
So maybe I'm too skeptical. Maybe by 2018, 20 percent of the produce needed in cities really will be grown right in our cities. It's a goal to shoot for, certainly, but if I were a futurist with a gambling streak, I wouldn't bet my jet-pack on it.
